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Amateur as I am of the economy, I have been waiting for 10 months for the forecasts of experts on mass layoffs and the collapse of employment to come true as a result of the Dignity Decree. Brief summary for forgetful people.
"The companies: 'We will not hire again. And the workers will always be the ones who lose out. Holy Versace: 'Motta and Alemagna failed because the judge granted everyone stable contracts'". (La Stampa, 29.6). "Decree imbecility: Di Maio wages war on the precarious to facilitate unemployment" (Libero, 3.7). "Risks lurking. Blow at the labour market, without countermeasures. A backward flight towards the ideology of the past, the one that we have struggled to put behind us for years and years" (Oscar Giannino, Messaggero, 3.7). "Many rules and little dignity" (Roberto Mania, Repubblica, 3.7). "Without Dignity. Blow to the economy. The decree of dignity of Di Maio passes: thousands of jobs at risk" (Il Giornale, 3.7). "Salvini stop the new communists" (Alessandro Sallusti, ibidem). "Di Maio blows up 100,000 jobs. Revolt of the artisans", "Immediately in smoke 100 thousand jobs. Wrath of businesses on the government. The Union of Craftsmen of Milan: 'We will no longer renew fixed-term contracts'. Here is the damage for the Italian system", "The decree dictated by the CGIL: 'The 5 stars are the new PCI'", "Confindustria also attacks: 'Everything is wrong, the plan will end up creating more unemployed without solving the node of precariousness'". (Il Giornale "Many companies will fail because of these rules" (Matteo Zoppas, president of Confindustria Veneto, La Stampa, 4.7).
"Companies and football against the decree on contracts. Less employed'''. (Courier, 4.7). "Saving businesses from the populist pillory. Mobilize. Much Cgil, little dignity. The Di Maio decree is a blow not to the precariat but to the occupation. The Gigi Economy is the culture of suspicion applied to the world of economics. Against a new horrendous mass pauperism" (Rg. Claudio Cerasa, il Foglio, 4.7). "The 'communist' turning point of Di Maio frightens the enterprises". (The Doubt, 4.7). "His companions like Maio's because he's a communist. Surpass on the left Landini. Trade unions and old tools enthusiastic about the dignity decree of Giggino, which instead terrorizes entrepreneurs" (Libero, 4.7). "Litigation on the decree: contracts at risk" (Messaggero, 4.7). "The dignity decree is a disaster. A mix of incompetence and populism. The unemployed will increase" (Carlo Calenda, Pd, La Stampa, 6.7).
"Berlusconi dismantles the Dignity: 'One million jobs at risk. It penalizes companies and favours undocumented work'" (Il Giornale, 9.7). "On the employment front, no benefits in terms of employment are seen on the horizon in the cold numbers of the State Accounting Office, but rather the risk that 8,000 people will remain at home every year, with the tightening of the renewal of fixed contracts" (Repubblica, 12.7). "80 thousand fewer jobs in 10 years. These are the conditions that the decree on dignity provides for. But shouldn't it have been the Waterloo of the precariat? The problem of work cannot be solved by destroying it" (Maurizio Martina, regent secretary Pd, 13.9). "Di Maio loses more and more contact with the earth's crust, he puts himself in orbits far from our planet... We are at the limits of economic denialism... The Dignity decree implies an increase in the cost of labour... the empirical evidence and the economic theory unanimously foresee a negative impact on the demand for labour. In an economy with high unemployment, this means a reduction in employment. It is difficult to determine the extent of this impact, but its negative sign is beyond question" (Tito Boeri, president of Inps, 14.7). "Di Maio burns 80,000 jobs. And he even writes it. The Dignity decree will reduce the number of employed" (Libero, 14.7). "Berlusconi to Salvini: the grillini break up Italy. They massacre those who produce", "The yellow-green 'miracle'. Burned in a few days 500 thousand jobs", "The paradox: less people employed with the new rules on fixed-term contracts" (Il Giornale, 15.7), "We have gone from the promise of one million jobs, to the assurance of burning at least half a million" (Nicola Porro, ibid.).
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"The estimate of 8,000 lost jobs is optimistic" (Boeri, 19.7). " This is not the dignity decree, it is the unemployment decree. Di Maio is not the Minister of Labour, he is the Minister of Unemployment" (Matteo Renzi, Senator Pd, 24.7). "The wrath of the industrialists of Veneto: the League accepts the decree for one barge less" (Corriere, 25.7). "Dignity Decree. A mother is the first victim: 'I lose my job'" (La Repubblica, 27.7). "Entrepreneurs and workers are rebelling against Di Maio: the precariousness increases. The vice-premier takes dignity away from the workers. Industrialists, craftsmen, merchants: a ''vaffa'' is triggered against the new rules on contracts" (Libero, 28.7). "This is an unemployment decree. There are thousands of citizens who risk being fired and their fixed-term contracts terminated. The M5S propaganda clashes with reality. Di Maio should respond to those who risk their jobs as a result of the decree" (Martina, Pd, Corriere, 25.7). "Government at the crossroads, the cry of alarm grows. The uneasiness of the entrepreneurs" (Luciano Fontana, Corriere, 29.7). "Ignorance in power. 5 Stars in disarray. Decree Di Maio, at risk 7 thousand prof" (Il Giornale, 29.7). "To restore dignity to those who create work. Ring a Ring-o'Roses of entrepreneurs in turmoil for a frightening government. That's why from Udine to Varese, from Milan to Foggia, for companies now the uncertainty risks to become law now that Di Maio could remove employment by decree" (Il Foglio, 2.8). "Foodora sees the grillini and runs away. Out one: now it's a risk of exodus. The battle over gig economy's precarious workers is already over, but in the meantime the most virtuous company is pedaling across the border" (Il Giornale, 4.8). "Dignity is law. The League is ashamed of Di Maio. Ok to the suicidal rules of M5S", "Di Maio, the Minister of Labour (illegal)". (Il Giornale, 8.8). "Federmeccanica alert: 30% of enterprises will not renew contracts due to the Dignity decree. Assolavoro: at least 53,000 people will not be able to be reemployed due to the maximum limit of 24 months (La Stampa, 6.12). "Blue suits, 'Dignity' effect: at risk one job out of three" (Il Giornale, 6.12). "Dignity Decree alert: in January the renewal of more than 53 thousand contracts will be cancelled" (Messaggero, 6.12). "Miracles and catastrophes of the decree dignity" (Il Foglio, 17.12). "The dignity decree of Di Maio does enormous damages: only in January 53 thousand will lose their jobs" (Luca Lotti, deputy Pd, Corriere, 17.12). "Already lost 600 thousand jobs" (Il Giornale, 22.12). "Crotone. Expelled 400 for the dignity decree. The statement by the Cgil Clc: 'Only in Calabria 1500 contracts at risk'". (La Repubblica, 16.1). "Hundreds of thousands of fewer people employed, about 250 thousand only in the market managed by the employment agencies. These are the first consequences of the dignity decree" (Il Foglio, 24.1). "The great 'success' of the Dignity Decree. Unemployment applications rise by 5%" (Libero, 25.1). "Work at the time of the yellow-greens. Uncertainty and bureaucracy. The industrialists judge the Dignity signed by Di Maio, 7 months later. Which produced a minimal increase. And precarious" (Espresso, 17.3).
Istat now announces that in March 2019 the number of employees increased by 60,000 compared to February and by 114,000 compared to March 2018, especially for stable contracts (+44,000); and unemployment has fallen to 10.2%, especially among young people and women. From January to March 2019, after the adjustment of the Dl Dignity in force since November, employment grew over the previous three months (+0.2%, equal to +46 thousand), the number of temporary employees fell (-1.0%, -31 thousand), the number of independent employees increased (+0.3%, +14 thousand) and especially permanent employees (+0.4%, +64 thousand).
But prophets of misfortune do not despair: it will certainly get worse in the next quarter. In fact, Repubblica already titled all wet: "The Italian case. Europe, the sting is ready". I too can't wait, so I turn, as a layman, to these experts: when do the mass layoffs start? When do the grasshoppers arrive? Is anything known about the Apocalypse?
Marco Travaglio FQ 5 May